Spartans snap Ohio State's long home win streak

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/11/2012 - Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Adreian Payne scored a team-high 15 points as No. 11 Michigan State handed third-ranked Ohio State its first home loss in almost two years with a 58-48 decision at Value City Arena.

Keith Appling added 14 points and Draymond Green had 12 with nine rebounds for Michigan State (20-5, 9-3 Big Ten), which earned its third straight win and now sits in a tie with Ohio State for the top spot in the conference.

Jared Sullinger recorded 17 points and a season-high 16 rebounds for Ohio State (21-4, 9-3), but also had a career-high 10 turnovers in the Buckeyes' first loss in Columbus since February 17, 2010. They were riding a 39-game home win streak entering Saturday's contest.

Aaron Craft dropped in 15 points in a losing effort as Ohio State shot just 26.4 percent from the floor in the contest, including a 2-for-15 mark from three-point range.

After Payne's layup gave Michigan State an early 4-2 lead, Ohio State reeled off seven straight points. But Green's three-pointer halted the spurt and sparked a 7-1 swing by the Spartans to take a slim, 11-10, lead.

A pair of Sullinger free throws put the Buckeyes back on top before an 11-4 run by Michigan State put them ahead, 22-16, as Ohio State failed to make a shot from the floor for over nine minutes.

Sullinger's trey stopped Ohio State's offensive drought and brought the Buckeyes within three, but the Spartans recorded the game's next six points to take their largest lead of the game to that point, 28-19, with less than five minutes left in the first half.

The Buckeyes never got closer than six for the remainder of the half and trailed 35-25 at the break for their largest halftime deficit of the season.

Ohio State shot just 7-for-21 from the floor and turned the ball over eight times in the first half, while Michigan State went 15-for-32 and recorded 14 points off of the Buckeyes' giveaways.

Ohio State scored the first four points of the second half to close the gap to six, but the Spartans responded with six straight points to go ahead, 41-29, just past the four-minute mark of the half.

The Spartans held at least an eight-point lead over the next four minutes, but after Appling's layup gave Michigan State a 44-34 lead, Ohio State made a push, scoring six straight to get within 44-40.

Two Appling free throws then put Michigan State back up six, and after Ohio State missed four straight shots in succession in an offensive flurry, Derrick Nix's jumper stopped the Spartan's seven-minute streak without a basket from the floor.

Ohio State never threatened again from there, as the Spartans made enough free throws down the stretch.

Game Notes

Michigan State recorded its 12th 20-win season in the last 15 years...Ohio State fell to 5-3 against ranked opponents this season...The Spartans hold a 64-53 advantage in the all-time series...Michigan State shot 40.4 percent in the game and outscored Ohio State in the paint, 30-12.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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